Bali, Indonesia Surf Forecast 25 September - 5 October, 2019

24 Sep 2019 0 Share

Ben Macartney

Chief Surf Forecaster

Forecast Issued Tuesday, September 24, 2019

Following an excellent run of surf across Indonesia throughout the month of September, we’ve finally started to see the Indian Ocean storm-track relenting over the past week. This is now flowing through to increasingly small surf throughout the Archipelago – and in the near-term it looks like getting even smaller. Over the next couple of days we can expect wave-energy to hit a low-point on Thursday; bottoming out at very small and inconsistent 1 to 2ft across the most exposed areas all day.

Thankfully, the outlook is back on the up into the end of the week; commencing with a relatively small pulse showing up Friday/ Saturday, ahead of something a whole lot more substantial arriving throughout  Sunday and Monday. Beyond that, the southern Indian Ocean storm-track will make a welcome return to form over the coming week; ushering in another great run of surf throughout the first week of October.

A short-lived lull in SW swell into the end of this week leads in another powerful late-season pulse of SSW groundswell this weekend, with more to follow into the first week of October. Photo: Andy Potts/The Perfect Wave.

A short-lived lull in SW swell into the end of this week leads in another powerful late-season pulse of SSW groundswell this weekend, with more to follow into the first week of October. Photo: Andy Potts/The Perfect Wave.

Daily Summary

Wednesday 25
Slight SSW swell gradually fades. Up to a slow 1 to 2ft across the most exposed breaks, grading to tiny/ near-flat along the more sheltered areas.  WIND: Early light and variable ESE to SE 10 to 15 knots.

Thursday 26
Very slight SSW groundswell ranges from a slow 1 to 2ft exposed breaks early, verging on flat elsewhere. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE to SE 10 to 15 knots later.

Friday 27
Slow rising SSW groundswell moves in. Slower sets around 2 to occasional 3ft along exposed breaks, wrapping at 1 to 2ft elsewhere with size depending on exposure. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE/SE at 10 to 15 knots.

Saturday 28
Reinforcing, long-period SSW groundswell picks up. Sets in the 2 to 4ft range along exposed breaks, picking up to 3 to 5ft in the afternoon. Wrapping at lower levels elsewhere with size depending on exposure. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE/SE around 10 to 15 knots.

Sunday 29
Long-period SSW groundswell builds in from 205 to 210 degrees, ranging from 4 to 6ft across exposed breaks, easing in the afternoon and wrapping at lower levels elsewhere with size depending on exposure. WIND: Light and variable tending ESE to SE around 10 to 15 knots.

Monday 30
Long period SSW groundswell slowly eases. Sets ranging from 3 to 4ft+ exposed breaks early, setting marginally in the afternoon. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE/SE 10 to 15 knots.

The late season returns to form with the arrival of a powerful round of SSW groundswell this weekend. Source: Wave Tracker.

The late season returns to form with the arrival of a powerful round of SSW groundswell this weekend. Source: Wave Tracker.

 Long Range
A new low moving out from below South Africa this weekend looms as a notable source of SW groundswell for Indonesia into the first week of October.
The storm is forecast to gradually intensify as it tracks steadily eastward below the Kerguelen Islands; giving rise to a broadening 30 to 40kt SW fetch over the south-western Indian Ocean. The fetch is projected to further strengthen and expand in size as the low tracks rapidly southeast of Heard Island on Sunday and Monday, before contracting as the storm and associated winds ease again throughout Tuesday.

Assuming the storm sticks close to current forecast guidance, we’ll see a sizeable, long-period SSW groundswell arriving over the weekend of Saturday 5th October; preceded by a smaller pulse of SW groundswell on Friday 4th, originating from the early stages of the storm’s development. For now, this guidance points to a solid push into the 6 to 8ft+ range across exposed reefs on Saturday 5th through early Sunday 6th – but specifics on size and timing will become clearer in light of the storm’s development this weekend.

Beyond that, a large high pressure system burgeoning over the central and eastern Indian Ocean into the middle of next week is likely to have a strong suppressing influence on further swell-potential. It’s development may also coincide with relatively moderate storm-activity over the southwest Indian Ocean; thereby flowing through to a steady easing trend in wave-energy enduring throughout the first half of the week beginning Monday 7th October.

Tags: Indo Surf Forecast , Ben Macartney (create Alert from these tags)

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